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" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "
Nate Silver
Much
Cold
Hot
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" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "
Nate Silver
Baseball
Data
Lot
" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "
Nate Silver
Think
Reason
Glory
" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "
Nate Silver
Very
Modeled
Lot
" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
Nate Silver
You
Time
People
" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "
Nate Silver
New
Years
Some
" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "
Nate Silver
Expertise
Good
Kind
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
Nate Silver
Competition
Looking
Politics
" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "
Nate Silver
Nothing
Lot
Day
" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "
Nate Silver
Books
Before
Luxury
" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "
Nate Silver
Like
You
Celebrity
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "
Nate Silver
Just
Always
Been
" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Thin
Think
" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "
Nate Silver
Making
Yourself
Key
" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "
Nate Silver
People
Like
Heart
" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "
Nate Silver
Better
Good
Direction
" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "
Nate Silver
Become
Transcend
Power
" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "
Nate Silver
Yourself
Find
Know
" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "
Nate Silver
Human
Sure
Time
" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "
Nate Silver
I Think
Journal
Lot
" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "
Nate Silver
Guy
" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "
Nate Silver
Where
World
Beats
" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "
Nate Silver
Busy
Computer
Looked
" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
Nate Silver
Living
You
Online
" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "
Nate Silver
Need
Vacation
American
" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "
Nate Silver
Every Day
Library
Three
" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "
Nate Silver
Well
You
Know
" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "
Nate Silver
Noise
Both
Knowledge
" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "
Nate Silver
Accuracy
Different
Two
" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "
Nate Silver
Habits
Bad
Bad Habits