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" I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. "

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" The work that is truly productive is the domain of a steadily smaller and more elite fraction of humanity. "

" In fact, there was general agreement that minds can exist on nonbiological substrates and that algorithms are of central importance to the existence of minds. "

" Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work - the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. "

" When I began writing science fiction in the middle '60s, it seemed very easy to find ideas that took decades to percolate into the cultural consciousness; now the lead time seems more like eighteen months. "

" And for all my rampant technological optimism, sometimes I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one thousand years remove... instead of twenty. "

" When people speak of creating superhumanly intelligent beings, they are usually imagining an AI project. "

" I have argued above that we cannot prevent the Singularity, that its coming is an inevitable consequence of the humans' natural competitiveness and the possibilities inherent in technology. "

" The physical extinction of the human race is one possibility. "

" IA is something that is proceeding very naturally, in most cases not even recognized by its developers for what it is. "

" Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace. "

" We humans have millions of years of evolutionary baggage that makes us regard competition in a deadly light. "

" But every time our ability to access information and to communicate it to others is improved, in some sense we have achieved an increase over natural intelligence. "

" How will the approach of the Singularity spread across the human world view? "

" It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules. "

" Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. "

" I am suggesting that we recognize that in network and interface research there is something as profound (and potential wild) as Artificial Intelligence. "

" But if the technological Singularity can happen, it will. "

" Note that I am not proposing that AI research be ignored or less funded. "

" The dilemma felt by science fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. "

Science Fiction

" Even the largest avalanche is triggered by small things. "