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" It's not that we can predict bubbles - if we could, we would be rich. But we can certainly have a bubble warning system. "
Richard Thaler
Bubbles
Bubble
Warning
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" When employees are first eligible for a retirement savings plan, they should be enrolled unless they choose to opt out. "
Richard Thaler
Employees
Out
Choose
" In some ways, the finding that financial education doesn't provide long-term payoffs is hardly surprising. After all, how much do you remember from your high school chemistry class? Unless you use chemistry at work, you probably don't recall much about ionic bonding. "
Richard Thaler
Education
Financial
Work
" Lotteries are just one way to provide positive reinforcement. Their power comes from the fact that the chance of winning the prize is overvalued. "
Richard Thaler
Way
Power
Positive
" Most of us think that we are 'better than average' in most things. We are also 'miscalibrated,' meaning that our sense of the probability of events doesn't line up with reality. When we say we are sure about a certain fact, for example, we may well be right only half the time. "
Richard Thaler
Better
Think
Reality
" I try to teach people to make fewer mistakes. But in designing economic policies, we need to take full account of the fact that people are busy, they're absent minded, they're lazy, and that we should try to make things as easy for them as possible. "
Richard Thaler
Need
People
Mistakes
" Fortunately, economists open to new ways of thinking are finding novel ways to use supposedly irrelevant factors to make the world a better place. "
Richard Thaler
Place
Finding
Better
" There can be legal conflicts over whether registering intent is enough to qualify you as an organ donor or whether a doctor must still ask your family's permission. "
Richard Thaler
You
Doctor
Enough
" We behavioralists differ from our more traditional brethren in the way we characterize agents in the economy. "
Richard Thaler
Our
Economy
Way
" In a democracy, if a government creates bad policies, it can be voted out of office. Competition in the private sector, however, can easily work to encourage phishing rather than stifle it. "
Richard Thaler
Government
Democracy
Work
" The more we turn down questionable offers like trip insurance and scrutinize 'one month' trials, the less incentive companies will have to use such schemes. "
Richard Thaler
Trials
Turn
Down
" The lesson of my field, behavioral economics, is that we need to understand the ways in which we differ from the rational human assumed in standard economic theory. "
Richard Thaler
Understand
Economics
Lesson
" My thesis topic was 'The value of a human life.' I asked people a question: 'Suppose you had some risk, a one in a thousand risk of dying - how much would you pay to eliminate it?' "
Richard Thaler
People
Life
Dying
" If you want to encourage some activity, make it easy. "
Richard Thaler
You
Activity
Easy
" High school seniors should receive help in how to think about a student loan and how to make sure that the education bought with the loan offers good prospects for repayment. "
Richard Thaler
Think
School
Good
" Payroll savings plans are vital because they are essentially the only way that middle-class Americans reliably save for retirement. "
Richard Thaler
Retirement
Plans
Way
" Even if we grade on a very generous curve, many Americans flunk when it comes to financial literacy. "
Richard Thaler
Financial
Curve
Generous
" Here is a guiding principle: If a business collects data on consumers electronically, it should provide them with a version of that data that is easy to download and export to another Web site. "
Richard Thaler
Principle
Web
Easy
" Pundits are no better at forecasting election outcomes than they would be at predicting the final path of a hurricane. Smart pundits should consider either abandoning this activity or consulting with the geeks before rendering their guesses. "
Richard Thaler
Path
Smart
Hurricane
" Traditional economics is based on imaginary creatures sometimes referred to as 'Homo economicus.' I call them Econs for short. Econs are amazingly smart and are free of emotion, distraction or self-control problems. Think Mr. Spock from 'Star Trek.' "
Richard Thaler
Smart
Free
Problems
" Real people have trouble balancing their checkbooks, much less calculating how much they need to save for retirement; they sometimes binge on food, drink, or high-definition televisions. They are more like Homer Simpson than Mr. Spock. "
Richard Thaler
Need
Retirement
Trouble
" If you're not putting enough away for emergencies or retirement, making commitments in advance, such as signing up for payroll withholding, can help. "
Richard Thaler
Retirement
Up
You
" For amateur golfers, I think one of the biggest mistakes is to model their play on professionals. "
Richard Thaler
I Think
Model
Play
" The wealth in many large estates has never been taxed because it is largely in the form of unrealized - therefore untaxed - capital gains. "
Richard Thaler
Large
Wealth
Never
" Shopping for an annuity with hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake can be daunting, even for an economist. "
Richard Thaler
Dollars
Shopping
Even
" You can't make evidence-based policy decisions without evidence. "
Richard Thaler
Evidence
Make
You
" Leaders are important but not omnipotent. "
Richard Thaler
Leaders
Omnipotent
Important
" God did not say that you should be able to borrow one hundred percent of the price of a house. "
Richard Thaler
Percent
You
God
" The sad truth is that many behavioral economists know very little about psychology. "
Richard Thaler
Truth Is
Know
Psychology
" A nudge is some feature of the environment that changes the behaviour of humans but would not change the behaviour of rational economic agents, what we call Econs. "
Richard Thaler
Economic
Environment
Changes
" There's a reason why start-ups, especially disruptive start-ups - like Google or Amazon or Uber - are full of young people. That's because young people are not as wedded to the old fashioned ways of doing things. "
Richard Thaler
Doing
Young
Reason