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" We love a tale of heroes and villains and conflicts requiring a neat resolution. "

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" Little white lies are told by humans all the time. Indeed, lying is often how we get through each day in a happy little bubble. We spend time and energy rationalizing our own behaviors, beliefs and decision-making processes. "

" The consumption and production of energy is a major component of the global economy. "

" Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable. "

" When it comes to investing, there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all portfolio. "

One-Size-Fits-All

" There is a shortage of doctors, and the American Medical Association is aiming to keep it that way. "

" Shopmas now begins on Thanksgiving Day. Apparently, escaping the families you cannot stand to spend another minute with on Thanksgiving Day to go buy them gifts is how some Americans show their affection for one another. Weird. "

" You can blow on the dice all you want, but whether they come up 'seven' is still a function of random luck. "

" How are the cabs in your city? In Manhattan, where I work, they are rather awful. "

" The simple reality of life is that everyone is wrong on a regular basis. By confronting these inevitable errors, you allow yourself to make corrections before it is too late. "

" Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple. "

" If you are not making any mistakes, you are being excessively risk-averse. Investing involves risk, and that means you will occasionally be wrong. And although it is okay to be wrong, it is not okay to stay wrong. "

" If I am going to trash others for their dumb predictions, I must at least hold myself to the same sort of accountability. "

" The beauty of diversification is it's about as close as you can get to a free lunch in investing. "

" The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging and often charming folks. The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors. "

" Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision. "

" Often, investors will discover a manager after he's had a terrific run, usually when he lands on a magazine cover somewhere. Invariably, funds swell up with new investor money just before they revert to their long-term averages. "

" The way we finance homes in this country is slow, filled with middlemen, who run a nonstandardized evaluation process. This makes financing a home cumbersome and difficult. "

" Hedge fund managers charge so much more than mutual fund managers; alpha is even harder to come by. They end up selling a variety of things beyond mere outperformance. "

" People who work in specialized fields seem to have their own language. Practitioners develop a shorthand to communicate among themselves. The jargon can almost sound like a foreign language. "

" Google's founders have had a good eye for imagining what technologies will be significant in the near future. No one asked Google to develop self-driving cars, but it helped them with street views for Google Maps. "

" Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling. "

" It is in your DNA to love a good story. You know, neat tales with heroes and villains and conflicts to resolve. A good story pushes our buttons, is exciting and memorable. "

" In New York, the former lack of real competition allowed taxis to extract excessive charges, regardless of the poor service. "

" Owning a variety of asset classes means that some part of your portfolio will be doing well when the cyclical turmoil arises. A broadly diversified portfolio includes large capitalization stocks, small cap, emerging markets, fixed income, real estate and commodities. "