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" Markets are, in many settings, self-organizing and 'efficient' in terms of maximizing the welfare of both buyers and sellers. "
David Autor
Settings
Efficient
Markets
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" I'm not yet convinced that we will face an unemployment problem created by AI. There will certainly be some occupations eliminated - drivers of vehicles, many production jobs, etc. Whether this creates mass unemployment depends on how quickly this happens. If it happens overnight, it will be a huge disruption. "
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" Workers and jobs are naturally heterogeneous, and the quality of their interaction when paired is difficult to forecast. "
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" People tend to think about trade as if it's competition between companies - if Apple wins, Google loses. But that's false. Trade makes nations better off in general. Now, I want to be clear. I'm not saying that everything about trade is good and beneficial. Trade also has costs. "
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" In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger exploded and crashed down to Earth less than two minutes after takeoff. The cause of that crash, it turned out, was an inexpensive rubber O-ring in the booster rocket that had frozen on the launchpad the night before and failed catastrophically moments after takeoff. "
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" Work is what structures adults' lives: it gives us purpose, focus, a set of responsibilities, and an identity. So when people are not participating in the labour market, all sorts of other things often start to go wrong. "
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" Tax reform done right will improve incentives to invest in U.S. production and to repatriate profits. "
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" Labor is getting a shrinking slice of a pie that's not growing very much. "
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" The average worker in 2015 wanting to attain the average living standard in 1915 could do so by working just 17 weeks a year, one third of the time. But most people don't choose to do that. They are willing to work hard to harvest the technological bounty that is available to them. Material abundance has never eliminated perceived scarcity. "
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" Economists have understood since the Victorian era that the main benefits of trade come from comparative advantage: the idea that people can specialize in what they're good at and then benefit from exchange. The principle is no more mysterious than specialization in the labor market. "
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Mysterious
People
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" Our machines increasingly do our work for us. Why doesn't this make our labor redundant and our skills obsolete? Why are there still so many jobs? "
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Why
" We have too few college graduates. We also have too few people who are prepared for college. "
David Autor
Who
Prepared
People
" Computers were programmed to swap out error-prone, inconsistent human calculation with digital perfection. "
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Human
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Computers
" Trade may raise GDP. But it does make some people worse off. "
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Worse
Off
People
" Workers are basically supervisors of machines. "
David Autor
Machines
Basically
Workers
" Work is really wrapped up with identity. Work is not just money for most people. "
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" Here's a startling fact: in the 45 years since the introduction of the automated teller machine, those vending machines that dispense cash, the number of human bank tellers employed in the United States has roughly doubled, from about a quarter of a million to a half a million. "
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Cash
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Here
" China's rise is really a kind of a world historical event. This is the largest country in the world. It has caused a wholesale substantial contraction of U.S. manufacturing employment. "
David Autor
Rise
Country
World
" While I can't tell you what people are going to do for work 100 years from now, the future doesn't hinge on my imagination. "
David Autor
You
Future
Imagination
" One would expect that a surge of new automation opportunities in highly paid work would catalyze a surge of corporate investment in computer hardware and software. Instead, the opposite occurred. "
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Work
New
Opportunities
" I'm a professor of economics and associate head of the MIT Department of Economics. "
David Autor
Professor
MIT
Economics
" There was a great sag in employment beginning in 2000. "
David Autor
Employment
Great
Beginning
" The U.S. tends to export high-tech goods because we have strong comparative advantage there, and we tend to import labor-intensive and less skill-intensive goods that other countries can do more cheaply. "
David Autor
Other
Because
Less
" History has suggested that the pessimists have been wrong time and time again. "
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Time
Wrong
Again
" The end of the 'tech bubble' in the year 2000 is, of course, widely recognized, as the NASDAQ stock index erased three-quarters of its value between 2000 and 2003. "
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Year
Recognized
End
" I think we labor economists like to think of ourselves as being closer to the people. "
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People
Think
Economists
" More than any other issue, economists have kind of been boosters for trade. "
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Any
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Economists
" I work a lot on skill demands and changes in labor markets having to do with technology and with trade as well. "
David Autor
Technology
Work
Skill
" The fact that people are dropping out of the labour force says one of two things: either employers have no use for them, or they have no use for the jobs that are being offered at the wages they can command. "
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Wages
Two
" Jobs can change a lot without there being huge changes in employment rates. "
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Changes
Without
Employment
" I did software development for a while, and I also spent several years directing a nonprofit in San Francisco that did computer education for the poor. I also did a lot of work in fast food. "
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Food
Education
Work