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" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

Nate Silver

Myself

Work

Play

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" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

Nate Silver

Become

Uncertainty

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

Nate Silver

Think

Feel

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

Nate Silver

People

Heart

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

Nate Silver

Economists

Most

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

Nate Silver

Guy