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" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

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" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "