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" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "
Nate Silver
Treat
Any
Want
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" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "
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" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "
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" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "
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" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "
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" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
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" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
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" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "
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" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "
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" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "
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" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "
Nate Silver
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Library
Three
" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "
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Truth
Commitment
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" I don't think you should limit what you read. "
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Limit
You
Think
" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "
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New
Years
Some
" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "
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Well
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Know
" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "
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Much
Cold
Hot
" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "
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Much
You
Tell
" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "
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Him
Recognized
Believe
" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "
Nate Silver
Myself
Work
Play
" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
Nate Silver
You
Time
People
" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "
Nate Silver
Busy
Computer
Looked
" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "
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Time
Know
More
" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "
Nate Silver
Better
Good
Direction
" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "
Nate Silver
Information
Happier
People
" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "
Nate Silver
Expertise
Good
Kind
" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "
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Evil
Saying
Now
" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "
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" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "
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Every
" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "
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Just
Always
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" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
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Representative
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" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "
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