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" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

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" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "