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" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "
Nate Silver
Habits
Bad
Bad Habits
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" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "
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Politics
Right
Build
" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "
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Predict
Mistake
You
" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "
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System
You
Trying
" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
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Living
You
Online
" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "
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Yourself
Boring
Data
" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "
Nate Silver
Guy
" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "
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Kind
Little
Strange
" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "
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Where
World
Beats
" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "
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Need
Vacation
American
" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "
Nate Silver
Economists
More
Most
" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "
Nate Silver
People
Like
Heart
" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "
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More
Data
Play
" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "
Nate Silver
Think
Reason
Glory
" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Direction
Wrong
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "
Nate Silver
Books
Before
Luxury
" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
Nate Silver
You
Time
People
" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "
Nate Silver
Success Is
People
Appreciate
" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "
Nate Silver
Information
Happier
People
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
Nate Silver
Competition
Looking
Politics
" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "
Nate Silver
Much
You
Tell
" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "
Nate Silver
Making
Yourself
Key
" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "
Nate Silver
Become
More
Uncertainty
" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "
Nate Silver
Know
Light
Information
" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "
Nate Silver
Just
Always
Been
" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "
Nate Silver
Entertainment
Just
News
" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "
Nate Silver
Right
Way
Want
" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "
Nate Silver
People
Acting
You
" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "
Nate Silver
Experiment
Think
Behavior
" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "
Nate Silver
Speed
You
Up