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" I think punditry serves no purpose. "
Nate Silver
Purpose
I Think
Think
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" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "
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Treat
Any
Want
" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "
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Still
Race
Every
" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "
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Evil
Saying
Now
" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Thin
Think
" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
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Representative
You
Get
" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
Nate Silver
Living
You
Online
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "
Nate Silver
Nothing
Lot
Day
" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "
Nate Silver
Kind
Little
Strange
" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "
Nate Silver
Yourself
Find
Know
" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "
Nate Silver
Politics
Think
Political
" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "
Nate Silver
Success Is
People
Appreciate
" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "
Nate Silver
Think
Reason
Glory
" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "
Nate Silver
Better
Good
Direction
" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "
Nate Silver
Habits
Bad
Bad Habits
" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "
Nate Silver
Politics
Right
Build
" You get steely nerves playing poker. "
Nate Silver
Nerves
Poker
You
" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "
Nate Silver
Become
Transcend
Power
" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "
Nate Silver
Baseball
Data
Lot
" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "
Nate Silver
People
Like
Heart
" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "
Nate Silver
Time
Know
More
" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "
Nate Silver
Experiment
Think
Behavior
" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "
Nate Silver
Human
Sure
Time
" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "
Nate Silver
Unknowns
Unknown
Always
" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "
Nate Silver
Accuracy
Different
Two
" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "
Nate Silver
Become
More
Uncertainty
" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "
Nate Silver
Making
Yourself
Key
" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "
Nate Silver
Economists
More
Most
" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "
Nate Silver
Much
Cold
Hot
" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "
Nate Silver
Where
Lot
Ideas