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" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

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" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "