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" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

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" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "