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" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "
Nate Silver
Know
Light
Information
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" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "
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System
You
Trying
" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "
Nate Silver
Very
Modeled
Lot
" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "
Nate Silver
Habits
Bad
Bad Habits
" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "
Nate Silver
I Think
Journal
Lot
" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "
Nate Silver
Yourself
Boring
Data
" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "
Nate Silver
Economists
More
Most
" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
Nate Silver
Representative
You
Get
" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "
Nate Silver
Evil
Saying
Now
" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "
Nate Silver
Financial
Choices
Situation
" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "
Nate Silver
Kind
Little
Strange
" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
Nate Silver
You
Time
People
" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "
Nate Silver
Things
You
Intimidated
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
Nate Silver
Competition
Looking
Politics
" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "
Nate Silver
Baseball
Data
Lot
" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "
Nate Silver
Need
Vacation
American
" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "
Nate Silver
Expertise
Good
Kind
" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "
Nate Silver
Guy
" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "
Nate Silver
Myself
Work
Play
" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "
Nate Silver
Think
Reason
Glory
" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "
Nate Silver
Now
Skill
Real
" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "
Nate Silver
Like
You
Celebrity
" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "
Nate Silver
Entertainment
Just
News
" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "
Nate Silver
Noise
Both
Knowledge
" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "
Nate Silver
Become
More
Uncertainty
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Thin
Think
" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
Nate Silver
Living
You
Online
" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "
Nate Silver
Much
You
Tell
" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "
Nate Silver
More
Data
Play
" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "
Nate Silver
Better
Good
Direction