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" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

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" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "