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" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

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" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "