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" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

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" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "