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" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

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" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "