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" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

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" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "