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" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

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" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "