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" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

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" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "