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" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

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" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "