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" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

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" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

Nate Silver

Human

Sure

Time

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

Nate Silver

Become

Uncertainty

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "

Nate Silver

Time

Know

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "

Nate Silver

You

Celebrity

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "