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" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

Nate Silver

Expertise

Good

Kind

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" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

Nate Silver

Become

Uncertainty

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

Nate Silver

People

Heart

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "