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" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "
Nate Silver
Evil
Saying
Now
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" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
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Representative
You
Get
" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "
Nate Silver
System
You
Trying
" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "
Nate Silver
Predict
Mistake
You
" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "
Nate Silver
More
Data
Play
" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "
Nate Silver
Guy
" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "
Nate Silver
Very
Modeled
Lot
" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "
Nate Silver
Politics
People
Much
" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "
Nate Silver
Elections
Unfortunately
Boring
" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "
Nate Silver
Making
Yourself
Key
" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "
Nate Silver
Entertainment
Just
News
" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "
Nate Silver
Noise
Both
Knowledge
" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "
Nate Silver
Baseball
Data
Lot
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
Nate Silver
Competition
Looking
Politics
" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "
Nate Silver
Treat
Any
Want
" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "
Nate Silver
Every Day
Library
Three
" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "
Nate Silver
Become
More
Uncertainty
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "
Nate Silver
Information
Happier
People
" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Direction
Wrong
" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "
Nate Silver
Know
Light
Information
" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "
Nate Silver
Tough
Improve
Walk
" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "
Nate Silver
Congress
Get
Opportunities
" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "
Nate Silver
Anything
Trying
Tricky
" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "
Nate Silver
Still
Race
Every
" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "
Nate Silver
Well
You
Know
" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "
Nate Silver
Where
World
Beats
" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "
Nate Silver
Speed
You
Up
" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "
Nate Silver
People
Like
Heart
" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "
Nate Silver
Accuracy
Different
Two
" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "
Nate Silver
Unknowns
Unknown
Always