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" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "

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" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "