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" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

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" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "