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" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "
Nate Silver
Like
You
Celebrity
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" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "
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" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "
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" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "
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" You get steely nerves playing poker. "
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" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "
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" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "
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" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "
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" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "
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" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "
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" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
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" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "
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Evil
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Now
" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "
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You
Online
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
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" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "
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" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "
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Both
Knowledge
" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "
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Before
Luxury
" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
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Representative
You
Get
" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "
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Now
Skill
Real
" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "
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Much
Cold
Hot
" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "
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Better
Good
Direction
" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "
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Problem
Thin
Think
" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "
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Information
Happier
People
" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "
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New York
New
Maybe
" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "
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Become
More
Uncertainty
" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "
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Him
Recognized
Believe
" I think punditry serves no purpose. "
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Purpose
I Think
Think
" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "
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Policy
Foreign Policy
Event
" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "
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Data
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" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "
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Direction
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