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" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

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" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "