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" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

Nate Silver

Yourself

Find

Know

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" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

Nate Silver

Think

Feel

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

Nate Silver

Guy

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "

Nate Silver

Time

Know

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

Nate Silver

Become

Uncertainty

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

Nate Silver

People

Heart

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "