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" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

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" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "