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" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

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" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "