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" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

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" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "