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" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

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" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" Voters memories will fade some. "

" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil. "

" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "