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" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

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" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. "