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" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

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" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I'm a pro-horserace guy. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "