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" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

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" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" I think punditry serves no purpose. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before. "

" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "

" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "

" The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. "

" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "

" Success makes you less intimidated by things. "

" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "

" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "

" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" A lot of things can't be modeled very well. "

" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "

" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "

" I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "