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" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "
Nate Silver
Problem
Direction
Wrong
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" I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. "
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Feel
" We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup. "
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Where
World
Beats
" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "
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Improve
Walk
" I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. "
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" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "
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New
Years
Some
" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "
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Him
Recognized
Believe
" There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns. "
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Unknowns
Unknown
Always
" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "
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Accuracy
Different
Two
" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "
Nate Silver
Policy
Foreign Policy
Event
" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "
Nate Silver
Kind
Little
Strange
" I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. "
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You
Time
People
" If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. "
Nate Silver
Busy
Computer
Looked
" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "
Nate Silver
Noise
Both
Knowledge
" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "
Nate Silver
Much
You
Tell
" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "
Nate Silver
People
Like
Heart
" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "
Nate Silver
Treat
Any
Want
" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "
Nate Silver
Yourself
Boring
Data
" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "
Nate Silver
Human
Happen
Funny
" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "
Nate Silver
Representative
You
Get
" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "
Nate Silver
Every Day
Library
Three
" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "
Nate Silver
Right
Way
Want
" I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation. "
Nate Silver
Need
Vacation
American
" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "
Nate Silver
Become
Transcend
Power
" I've just always been a bit of a dork. "
Nate Silver
Just
Always
Been
" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "
Nate Silver
Competition
Looking
Politics
" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "
Nate Silver
Time
Know
More
" When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there. "
Nate Silver
Fame
Internet
Kind
" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "
Nate Silver
Elections
Unfortunately
Boring
" I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.' "
Nate Silver
Experiment
Think
Behavior
" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "
Nate Silver
Human
Sure
Time