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" Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. "

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" People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't. "

" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

" I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake. "

" It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. "

" Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to. "

" In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. "

" I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt. "

" Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "

" We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. "

" To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" I don't think you should limit what you read. "

" The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. "

" Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. "