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" On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves. "

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" A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view. "

" If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. "

" I have the same friends and the same bad habits. "

" If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring. "

" If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it. "

" You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. "

" I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics. "

" I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. "

" I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts. "

" A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. "

" Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie. "

" Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him. "

" You get steely nerves playing poker. "

" We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. "

" You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. "

" I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve. "

" A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news. "

" By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. "

" People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. "

" To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. "

" We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. "

" Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. "

" When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen. "

" Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things. "

" I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week. "

" The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. "

" Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. "

" Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. "

" In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it. "

" Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. "